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Prediction for CME (2026-06-11T09:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-06-11T09:53Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/46803/-1
CME Note: Faint CME observed to the E only in STEREO A COR2. The source is likely dimming in SDO AIA 193 starting around 2026-06-11T08:48Z centered around S25W32.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-06-14T20:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/46805/1
Model Inputs:
2026-06-11T09:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=32.0, Lat.=6.0, Speed=293.0, HalfAngle=22.0, Time21.5=2026-06-11T19:59Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-06-14T20:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Europa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-06-16T18:00Z
Juice with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-06-16T18:00Z
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-06-15T16:00Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-06-15T06:00Z

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260611_195900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260611_195900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260611_195900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260611_195900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260611_195900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260611_195900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260611_195900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260611_195900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260611_195900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260611_195900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260611_195900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260611_195900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260611_195900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260611_195900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260611_195900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260611_195900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 65.77 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2026-06-12T02:14Z

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